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Tudelano vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Tudelano
Tudelano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Real Unión
Real Unión
2/2/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tudelano38%
×Draw28%
Real Unión35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tudelano
1.23
Real Unión
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tudelano
1.31
Real Unión
0.96

allows per match

Tudelano
1.38
Real Unión
1.15

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw
65%
Tudelano or Real Unión
72%
Draw or Real Unión
62%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+
16%
Real Unión wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals
71%
Tudelano 2+ goals
35%
Tudelano 3+ goals
13%
Real Unión 1+ goals
69%
Real Unión 2+ goals
33%
Real Unión 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)
52%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Real Unión defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Unión attack 0.96 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tudelano scores more
38%
level
28%
Real Unión scores more
35%

Tudelano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Tudelano 2–2 Real Unión

Tudelano and Real Unión drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.