Real Unión 3–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Real Unión

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Tudelano

Quique Rivero 42' (pen), 36'

Carlos Bravo 32'

Álex Gualda 69'

5/28/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Estadio Gal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Unión53%

×Draw25%

Tudelano23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real UniónExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.98

Real Unión

1.63

Tudelano

0.98

Real Unión creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.46

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Real Unión

1.46

Tudelano

0.84

allows per match

Real Unión

1.11

Tudelano

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Unión+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Unión ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Unión or draw

77%

Real Unión or Tudelano

75%

Draw or Tudelano

47%

Winning margin

Real Unión wins by 2+

28%

Tudelano wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Unión 1+ goals

80%

Real Unión 2+ goals

48%

Real Unión 3+ goals

22%

Tudelano 1+ goals

62%

Tudelano 2+ goals

26%

Tudelano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Unión (draw refunded)

70%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Unión at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Tudelano away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Unión attack 1.46 + Tudelano defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tudelano attack 0.84 + Real Unión defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Unión scores more

53%

level

25%

Tudelano scores more

23%

Real Unión at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Unión will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Oyarzun

32'

Carlos Bravo

36'

Quique Rivero

42'

Quique RiveroPenalty

55'

I. Lopez

62'

Aitor Seguín← Alain Oyarzun

63'

A. Alonso← P. Caballero

63'

G. Faber← Aitor González

69'

Álex Gualda

70'

B. Compaore← Aitor Aranzabe

70'

Cedenilla← Alain Ribeiro

78'

Mikel Pradera← Chema Núñez

83'

Iván Cabellud← Laerte

90+2'

Elosegi← Carlos Bravo

90+2'

Imanol Ezkurdia← Miguel Santos

90+2'

Vivancos← Quique Rivero

Real

Tudelano

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bravo

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

62'▲Aitor Seguín←▼Alain Oyarzun

78'▲Mikel Pradera←▼Chema Núñez

90+2'▲Elosegi←▼Carlos Bravo

90+2'▲Imanol Ezkurdia←▼Miguel Santos

90+2'▲Vivancos←▼Quique Rivero

Real Unión substitutes

SeguínPraderaElosegiEzkurdiaVivancosBardajíBarbuElizondoPérezTemenuzhkovCapeleteSequeira

Manager: Carlos Pérez

63'▲A. Alonso←▼P. Caballero

63'▲G. Faber←▼Aitor González

70'▲B. Compaore←▼Aitor Aranzabe

70'▲Cedenilla←▼Alain Ribeiro

83'▲Iván Cabellud←▼Laerte

Tudelano substitutes

AlonsoFaberCompaoreCedenillaCabelludPuyod

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 3–1 Tudelano

Real Unión beat Tudelano 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 28, 2022.

Goals: Carlos Bravo (32'), Quique Rivero (36', 42' pen), Álex Gualda (69').

The match was played at Estadio Gal in Irún.

Real Unión vs Tudelano — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Unión 3–1 Tudelano