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Tudelano vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Tudelano
Tudelano
CANC
15:00
Extremadura
Extremadura
4/17/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tudelano51%
×Draw26%
Extremadura24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tudelano
1.54
Extremadura
0.97

Tudelano creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

creates per match

Tudelano
0.83
Extremadura
0.83

allows per match

Tudelano
1.11
Extremadura
2.25

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw
76%
Tudelano or Extremadura
74%
Draw or Extremadura
49%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+
26%
Extremadura wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals
79%
Tudelano 2+ goals
45%
Tudelano 3+ goals
20%
Extremadura 1+ goals
62%
Extremadura 2+ goals
25%
Extremadura 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)
68%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Extremadura away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Extremadura defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Extremadura attack 0.83 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tudelano scores more
51%
level
26%
Extremadura scores more
24%

Tudelano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tudelano vs Extremadura — Match Preview

Tudelano face Extremadura on April 17, 2022 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tudelano host Extremadura at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.