Extremadura 1–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Extremadura

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tudelano

10/22/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura37%

×Draw25%

Tudelano38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExtremaduraExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.42

Extremadura

1.40

Tudelano

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

1.00

creates per match

0.84

2.00

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Extremadura

1.00

Tudelano

0.84

allows per match

Extremadura

2.00

Tudelano

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw

62%

Extremadura or Tudelano

75%

Draw or Tudelano

63%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+

17%

Tudelano wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals

75%

Extremadura 2+ goals

41%

Extremadura 3+ goals

17%

Tudelano 1+ goals

76%

Tudelano 2+ goals

41%

Tudelano 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)

49%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Tudelano away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.00 + Tudelano defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tudelano attack 0.84 + Extremadura defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Extremadura scores more

37%

level

25%

Tudelano scores more

38%

Tudelano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff