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Tudelano vs Ebro — League #876 2026

Tudelano
Tudelano
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Ebro
Ebro
A. Teijeira 90+4'
G. Naranjo 58'
Paki 78'
J. Reques 52'
K. Soeiro 25'
Escolar Sergio 11'
3/8/2026League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tudelano45%
×Draw25%
Ebro30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tudelano
1.56
Ebro
1.23

Tudelano creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tudelano
1.13
Ebro
1.20

allows per match

Tudelano
1.27
Ebro
2.00

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw
70%
Tudelano or Ebro
75%
Draw or Ebro
55%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+
23%
Ebro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals
79%
Tudelano 2+ goals
46%
Tudelano 3+ goals
21%
Ebro 1+ goals
71%
Ebro 2+ goals
35%
Ebro 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)
60%
Ebro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.13 + Ebro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ebro attack 1.20 + Tudelano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tudelano scores more
45%
level
25%
Ebro scores more
30%

Tudelano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Escolar Sergio
25'
K. Soeiro
52'
J. Reques
58'
G. Naranjo
78'
Paki
90+4'
A. Teijeira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #876: Tudelano 2–4 Ebro

Ebro beat Tudelano 4-2 in League #876 on March 8, 2026.

Goals: Escolar Sergio (11'), K. Soeiro (25'), J. Reques (52'), G. Naranjo (58'), Paki (78'), A. Teijeira (90+4').