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Ebro vs Tudelano — League #876 2026

Ebro
Ebro
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tudelano
Tudelano
Nacho Uche 71'
Escolar Sergio 14'
M. Claveria 90'
I. Alayeto 45' (pen)
1/4/2026League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ebro35%
×Draw30%
Tudelano35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.07
Tudelano
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.00
Tudelano
1.14

allows per match

Ebro
1.00
Tudelano
1.14

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Tudelano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
65%
Ebro or Tudelano
70%
Draw or Tudelano
65%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
14%
Tudelano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
66%
Ebro 2+ goals
29%
Ebro 3+ goals
9%
Tudelano 1+ goals
66%
Tudelano 2+ goals
29%
Tudelano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
50%
Tudelano (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.00 + Tudelano defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Tudelano attack 1.14 + Ebro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ebro scores more
35%
level
30%
Tudelano scores more
35%

Ebro at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Escolar Sergio
45'
I. AlayetoPenalty
71'
Nacho Uche
90'
M. Claveria
Ebro
Tudelano
Javier Genovés
Manager: Javier Genovés
Oskar Vales
Manager: Oskar Vales

Ebro 2 – 2 Tudelano

Ebro and Tudelano drew 2-2 in League #876 on January 4, 2026.

Goals: Escolar Sergio (14'), I. Alayeto (45' pen), Nacho Uche (71'), M. Claveria (90').

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.