Tudelano 1–1 Cultural Leonesa: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cultural Leonesa

P. Caballero 40'

Ander Vitoria 22'

10/30/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano34%

×Draw29%

Cultural Leonesa37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.14

Tudelano

1.07

Cultural Leonesa

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

0.83

creates per match

1.16

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

63%

Tudelano or Cultural Leonesa

71%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

66%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

13%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

66%

Tudelano 2+ goals

29%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

68%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

32%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

48%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tudelano scores more

34%

level

29%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

37%

Cultural Leonesa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Ander Vitoria

25'

S. Samanes

40'

P. Caballero

64'

Álvaro Juan← Alberto Solís

64'

Sergio Buenacasa← Nahuel Arroyo

72'

M. Chavarría← Rodrigo Sanz

73'

J. Moreno

76'

N. Obolskiy← Aarón Piñán

77'

Iván Cabellud← Alain Ribeiro

77'

Iván Elena← Santi Samanes

83'

Galder Cerrajería← D. Klinar

85'

Álex Gualda← Aitor González

85'

Iribarren← Álvaro Molina

Tudelano

Cultural

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Carlos Pérez

72'▲M. Chavarría←▼Rodrigo Sanz

77'▲Iván Cabellud←▼Alain Ribeiro

77'▲Iván Elena←▼Santi Samanes

85'▲Álex Gualda←▼Aitor González

85'▲Iribarren←▼Álvaro Molina

Tudelano substitutes

ChavarríaCabelludElenaGualdaIribarrenCedenillaPellegrinoFrauVassi

Manager: Ramón

64'▲Álvaro Juan←▼Alberto Solís

64'▲Sergio Buenacasa←▼Nahuel Arroyo

76'▲N. Obolskiy←▼Aarón Piñán

83'▲Galder Cerrajería←▼D. Klinar

Cultural Leonesa substitutes

JuanBuenacasaObolskiyCerrajeríaFríasÁlvarezFernándezKalvinEmpis

Match Recap: Tudelano vs Cultural Leonesa

Tudelano and Cultural Leonesa drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 30, 2021.

Goals: Ander Vitoria (22'), P. Caballero (40').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela in Tudela.

Tudelano vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tudelano vs Cultural Leonesa