Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cultural Leonesa vs Tudelano — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tudelano
Tudelano
2/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cultural Leonesa54%
×Draw25%
Tudelano21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.60
Tudelano
0.88

Cultural Leonesa creates 82% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 19 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Tudelano
0.84

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Tudelano
1.79

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Tudelano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
79%
Cultural Leonesa or Tudelano
75%
Draw or Tudelano
46%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
29%
Tudelano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
80%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
47%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
22%
Tudelano 1+ goals
59%
Tudelano 2+ goals
22%
Tudelano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
72%
Tudelano (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Tudelano away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Tudelano defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tudelano attack 0.84 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
54%
level
25%
Tudelano scores more
21%

Cultural Leonesa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Cultural Leonesa 3–1 Tudelano

Cultural Leonesa beat Tudelano 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.