Tudelano 0–1 Calahorra: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Calahorra

2/6/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Estadio Municipal Ciudad de Tudela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tudelano32%

×Draw30%

Calahorra38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchCalahorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.08

Tudelano

0.97

Calahorra

1.08

Calahorra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

0.83

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Tudelano

0.83

Calahorra

1.05

allows per match

Tudelano

1.11

Calahorra

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Calahorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Calahorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

62%

Tudelano or Calahorra

70%

Draw or Calahorra

68%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

12%

Calahorra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

62%

Tudelano 2+ goals

25%

Tudelano 3+ goals

7%

Calahorra 1+ goals

66%

Calahorra 2+ goals

29%

Calahorra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

46%

Calahorra (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Calahorra away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 0.83 + Calahorra defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Calahorra attack 1.05 + Tudelano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tudelano scores more

32%

level

30%

Calahorra scores more

38%

Calahorra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff