Calahorra 1–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Calahorra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tudelano

Fran Sota 33'

Mikel Orbegozo 90+3' (pen)

1/13/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Estadio La Planilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Calahorra41%

×Draw28%

Tudelano31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalahorraExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.04

Calahorra

1.26

Tudelano

1.04

Calahorra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 26 away

1.02

creates per match

1.04

1.05

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Calahorra

1.02

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Calahorra

1.05

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calahorra+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calahorra ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Calahorra or draw

69%

Calahorra or Tudelano

72%

Draw or Tudelano

59%

Winning margin

Calahorra wins by 2+

18%

Tudelano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Calahorra 1+ goals

72%

Calahorra 2+ goals

36%

Calahorra 3+ goals

13%

Tudelano 1+ goals

65%

Tudelano 2+ goals

28%

Tudelano 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Calahorra (draw refunded)

58%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calahorra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.05 · 44 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calahorra attack 1.02 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Calahorra defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Calahorra scores more

41%

level

28%

Tudelano scores more

31%

Calahorra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Calahorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Fran Sota

59'

Fernando Delgado← Iribarren

59'

Mikel Orbegozo← Diego Royo

75'

Ander El Haddadi← Jordi Ortega

75'

Rayco García← Amorrortu

78'

Ángel Sánchez← Álex Sánchez

85'

Cristian Fernández Conchuela← Fran Sota

89'

T. Carrique← Cristian Fernández Linde

90+3'

Mikel OrbegozoPenalty

Calahorra

Tudelano

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Diego Martínez

75'▲Ander El Haddadi←▼Jordi Ortega

75'▲Rayco García←▼Amorrortu

85'▲Cristian Fernández Conchuela←▼Fran Sota

89'▲T. Carrique←▼Cristian Fernández Linde

Calahorra substitutes

HaddadiGarcíaConchuelaCarriqueColletRodríguezMarcénSantamaríaBonilla

Manager: Nacho Martín

59'▲Fernando Delgado←▼Iribarren

59'▲Mikel Orbegozo←▼Diego Royo

78'▲Ángel Sánchez←▼Álex Sánchez

Tudelano substitutes

DelgadoOrbegozoSánchezSocorroOtañoRudiJiménezGassama

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–1 Tudelano

Calahorra and Tudelano drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 13, 2021.

Goals: Fran Sota (33'), Mikel Orbegozo (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Estadio La Planilla in Calahorra.

Calahorra vs Tudelano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Calahorra 1–1 Tudelano