Tudelano 1–2 Amorebieta: Result & Stats

Tudelano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Amorebieta

Santi Samanes 52'

Iker Seguín 75', 71'

4/25/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal de Tarazona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tudelano34%

×Draw28%

Amorebieta38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TudelanoExpected goals in this matchAmorebieta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Tudelano

1.15

Amorebieta

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.38

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Tudelano

1.31

Amorebieta

1.07

allows per match

Tudelano

1.38

Amorebieta

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tudelano+0.00on par

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tudelano ↓

Amorebieta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tudelano or draw

62%

Tudelano or Amorebieta

72%

Draw or Amorebieta

66%

Winning margin

Tudelano wins by 2+

14%

Amorebieta wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tudelano 1+ goals

68%

Tudelano 2+ goals

32%

Tudelano 3+ goals

11%

Amorebieta 1+ goals

71%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

35%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tudelano (draw refunded)

47%

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tudelano at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tudelano attack 1.31 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Tudelano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tudelano scores more

34%

level

28%

Amorebieta scores more

38%

Amorebieta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Santi Samanes

56'

Íñigo Orozco← Koldo Obieta

70'

Asier Etxaburu← Iker Unzueta

70'

Ekaitz Molina← Mikel Álvaro

71'

Iker Seguín

75'

Iker Seguín

76'

Mikel Orbegozo← Álex Gualda

79'

Iván Martínez← Rodrigo Sanz

82'

Aitor Aldalur← Mikel Zarrabeitia

Tudelano

Amorebieta

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Nacho Martín

76'▲Mikel Orbegozo←▼Álex Gualda

79'▲Iván Martínez←▼Rodrigo Sanz

Tudelano substitutes

OrbegozoMartínezMeseguerDelgadoRudiAnderRoigGassama

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

56'▲Íñigo Orozco←▼Koldo Obieta

70'▲Asier Etxaburu←▼Iker Unzueta

70'▲Ekaitz Molina←▼Mikel Álvaro

82'▲Aitor Aldalur←▼Mikel Zarrabeitia

Amorebieta substitutes

OrozcoEtxaburuMolinaAldalurGarroLeitzaGoiriaGaraiMarino