Amorebieta 5–1 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Amorebieta

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Tudelano

Gabri Salazar 86', 79'

Aimar Sagasti 31'

Ekain Zenitagoia 26' (pen)

Amorrortu 20'

Julen Azkue 85'

1/25/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Amorebieta50%

×Draw26%

Tudelano25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmorebietaExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Amorebieta

1.52

Tudelano

0.99

Amorebieta creates 54% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 26 away

1.54

creates per match

1.04

0.93

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Amorebieta

1.54

Tudelano

1.04

allows per match

Amorebieta

0.93

Tudelano

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw

75%

Amorebieta or Tudelano

74%

Draw or Tudelano

50%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+

25%

Tudelano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals

78%

Amorebieta 2+ goals

45%

Amorebieta 3+ goals

20%

Tudelano 1+ goals

63%

Tudelano 2+ goals

26%

Tudelano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)

67%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Tudelano defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tudelano attack 1.04 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Amorebieta scores more

50%

level

26%

Tudelano scores more

25%

Amorebieta at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Amorrortu

26'

Ekain ZenitagoiaPenalty

31'

Aimar Sagasti

37'

Luis Jiménez← Unai Zamorano

58'

Gabri Salazar← Amorrortu

58'

Ekaitz Molina← Markel Lozano

62'

D. Cortés← J. Lázaro

70'

Rementeria← Iker Bilbao

79'

Gabri Salazar

85'

Julen Azkue

86'

Gabri Salazar

Amorebieta

Tudelano

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Amorrortu

⚽

Zenitagoi

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

58'▲Gabri Salazar←▼Amorrortu

58'▲Ekaitz Molina←▼Markel Lozano

70'▲Rementeria←▼Iker Bilbao

Amorebieta substitutes

SalazarMolinaRementeriaPérezGarroOrozcoZarrabeitia

Manager: Lumbreras

37'▲Luis Jiménez←▼Unai Zamorano

62'▲D. Cortés←▼J. Lázaro

Tudelano substitutes

JiménezCortésSocorroZabaletaOlivasLópez