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Tucson vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Tucson
Tucson
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
7/10/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 9Kino North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tucson36%
×Draw27%
Northern Colorado38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tucson
1.25
Northern Colorado
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tucson
1.35
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Tucson
1.33
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Tucson+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tucson ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tucson or draw
62%
Tucson or Northern Colorado
73%
Draw or Northern Colorado
64%

Winning margin

Tucson wins by 2+
15%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tucson 1+ goals
71%
Tucson 2+ goals
36%
Tucson 3+ goals
13%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
72%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
37%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tucson (draw refunded)
49%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tucson at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tucson attack 1.35 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Tucson defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tucson scores more
36%
level
27%
Northern Colorado scores more
38%

Northern Colorado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tucson vs Northern Colorado

Tucson and Northern Colorado drew 1-1 in USL League One on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Kino North Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.