Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northern Colorado vs Tucson — USL League One 2019

Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tucson
Tucson
8/18/2022USL League OneUSL League One · Round 12Severance High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado50%
×Draw23%
Tucson26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Colorado
1.77
Tucson
1.21

Northern Colorado creates 46% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 52 away

creates per match

Northern Colorado
1.95
Tucson
1.27

allows per match

Northern Colorado
1.14
Tucson
1.60

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par
Tucson+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Tucson →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw
74%
Northern Colorado or Tucson
77%
Draw or Tucson
50%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+
28%
Tucson wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals
83%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
53%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
26%
Tucson 1+ goals
70%
Tucson 2+ goals
34%
Tucson 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
66%
Tucson (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Tucson away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Tucson defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Tucson attack 1.27 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Northern Colorado scores more
50%
level
23%
Tucson scores more
26%

Northern Colorado at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern Colorado vs Tucson

Tucson beat Northern Colorado 2-1 in USL League One on August 18, 2022.

The match was played at Severance High School in Severance, Colorado.