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Tucson vs Coachella — USL League Two 2026

Tucson
Tucson
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coachella
Coachella
7/15/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 21Kino North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tucson96%
×Draw3%
Coachella1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tucson
5.96
Coachella
0.72

Tucson creates 728% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tucson
3.47
Coachella
0.73

allows per match

Tucson
0.71
Coachella
8.45

finishing

Tucson+0.00on par
Coachella+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tucson ↓

Coachella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Tucson or draw
99%
Tucson or Coachella
97%
Draw or Coachella
4%

Winning margin

Tucson wins by 2+
90%
Coachella wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Tucson 1+ goals
100%
Tucson 2+ goals
97%
Tucson 3+ goals
90%
Coachella 1+ goals
51%
Coachella 2+ goals
16%
Coachella 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tucson (draw refunded)
99%
Coachella (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tucson at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Coachella away — creates 0.73, concedes 8.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tucson attack 3.47 + Coachella defence 8.45 → ÷2 → 5.96

Coachella attack 0.73 + Tucson defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Tucson scores more
96%
level
3%
Coachella scores more
1%

Tucson at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Tucson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Tucson 1–1 Coachella

Tucson and Coachella drew 1-1 in USL League Two on July 15, 2024.

The match was played at Kino North Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.