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Coachella vs Tucson — USL League Two 2026

Coachella
Coachella
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tucson
Tucson
6/26/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 14Shadow Hills High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Coachella8%
×Draw10%
Tucson83%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coachella
1.31
Tucson
4.15

Tucson creates 217% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Coachella
1.18
Tucson
2.39

allows per match

Coachella
5.91
Tucson
1.44

finishing

Coachella+0.00on par
Tucson+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coachella ↓

Tucson →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Coachella or draw
17%
Coachella or Tucson
90%
Draw or Tucson
92%

Winning margin

Coachella wins by 2+
3%
Tucson wins by 2+
67%

Team goals

Coachella 1+ goals
73%
Coachella 2+ goals
38%
Coachella 3+ goals
14%
Tucson 1+ goals
98%
Tucson 2+ goals
91%
Tucson 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Coachella (draw refunded)
8%
Tucson (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coachella at home — creates 1.18, concedes 5.91 · 11 matches

Tucson away — creates 2.39, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coachella attack 1.18 + Tucson defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tucson attack 2.39 + Coachella defence 5.91 → ÷2 → 4.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Coachella scores more
8%
level
10%
Tucson scores more
83%

Tucson at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Tucson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coachella vs Tucson

Coachella and Tucson drew 2-2 in USL League Two on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Shadow Hills High School Stadium in Indio, California.