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Tubize vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Tubize
Tubize
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rochefort
Rochefort
A. Lauwrensens 54'
9/10/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 3Stade Leburton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tubize60%
×Draw22%
Rochefort17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tubize
1.89
Rochefort
0.90

Tubize creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tubize
1.60
Rochefort
1.00

allows per match

Tubize
0.80
Rochefort
2.17

finishing

Tubize+0.00on par
Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tubize ↓

Rochefort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tubize or draw
83%
Tubize or Rochefort
78%
Draw or Rochefort
40%

Winning margin

Tubize wins by 2+
36%
Rochefort wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tubize 1+ goals
85%
Tubize 2+ goals
56%
Tubize 3+ goals
29%
Rochefort 1+ goals
59%
Rochefort 2+ goals
23%
Rochefort 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tubize (draw refunded)
78%
Rochefort (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tubize at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tubize attack 1.60 + Rochefort defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Tubize defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tubize scores more
60%
level
22%
Rochefort scores more
17%

Tubize at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tubize will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
A. Lauwrensens
Tubize
Rochefort
D. Brnčić
Manager: D. Brnčić
J. Rentmeister
Manager: J. Rentmeister

League #487: Tubize 1–0 Rochefort

Tubize beat Rochefort 1-0 in League #487 on September 10, 2025.

Goals: A. Lauwrensens (54').

The match was played at Stade Leburton in Tubize.