Rochefort 1–1 Tubize: Result & Stats | League #487

Rochefort

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tubize

N. El Biache 79'

T. Crame 42'

3/7/2026

League #487 · ACFF - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rochefort19%

×Draw25%

Tubize56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochefortExpected goals in this matchTubize

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.58

Rochefort

0.80

Tubize

1.58

Tubize creates 98% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.60

1.56

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Rochefort

1.00

Tubize

1.60

allows per match

Rochefort

1.56

Tubize

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par

Tubize+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Tubize →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw

44%

Rochefort or Tubize

75%

Draw or Tubize

81%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+

6%

Tubize wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals

55%

Rochefort 2+ goals

19%

Rochefort 3+ goals

5%

Tubize 1+ goals

79%

Tubize 2+ goals

47%

Tubize 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)

25%

Tubize (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Tubize away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Tubize defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Tubize attack 1.60 + Rochefort defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rochefort scores more

19%

level

25%

Tubize scores more

56%

Tubize at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tubize will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

T. Crame

79'

N. El Biache

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff