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Tubize vs Albert Quévy-Mons — League #487 2026

Tubize
Tubize
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albert Quévy-Mons
Albert Quévy-Mons
4/12/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - Promotion Round - 7Stade Leburton

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tubize43%
×Draw26%
Albert Quévy-Mons31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tubize
1.45
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.19

Tubize creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tubize
1.60
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.57

allows per match

Tubize
0.80
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.29

finishing

Tubize+0.00on par
Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tubize ↓

Albert Quévy-Mons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tubize or draw
69%
Tubize or Albert Quévy-Mons
74%
Draw or Albert Quévy-Mons
57%

Winning margin

Tubize wins by 2+
21%
Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tubize 1+ goals
77%
Tubize 2+ goals
42%
Tubize 3+ goals
18%
Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals
70%
Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals
33%
Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tubize (draw refunded)
58%
Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tubize at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Albert Quévy-Mons away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tubize attack 1.60 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 1.57 + Tubize defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tubize scores more
43%
level
26%
Albert Quévy-Mons scores more
31%

Tubize at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tubize will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tubize vs Albert Quévy-Mons

Tubize beat Albert Quévy-Mons 1-0 in League #487 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Leburton in Tubize.