Albert Quévy-Mons 1–1 Tubize: Result & Stats

Albert Quévy-Mons

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tubize

V. Gorny 81'

T. Crame 56'

10/11/2025

League #487 · ACFF - 8Stade Charles Tondreau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Albert Quévy-Mons49%

×Draw27%

Tubize25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albert Quévy-MonsExpected goals in this matchTubize

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.93

Albert Quévy-Mons

1.43

Tubize

0.93

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

1.60

0.25

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Albert Quévy-Mons

2.25

Tubize

1.60

allows per match

Albert Quévy-Mons

0.25

Tubize

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par

Tubize+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albert Quévy-Mons ↓

Tubize →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Albert Quévy-Mons or draw

75%

Albert Quévy-Mons or Tubize

73%

Draw or Tubize

51%

Winning margin

Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+

24%

Tubize wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals

76%

Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals

42%

Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals

17%

Tubize 1+ goals

61%

Tubize 2+ goals

24%

Tubize 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)

66%

Tubize (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albert Quévy-Mons at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Tubize away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 2.25 + Tubize defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.43

Tubize attack 1.60 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Albert Quévy-Mons scores more

49%

level

27%

Tubize scores more

25%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

65'

65'

81'

85'

T. Vanhecke

85'

T. Vanhecke

Albert

Tubize

Manager: L. Nasca

Manager: D. Brnčić