Tuapse 0–4 Spartak Nalchik: Result & Stats

Tuapse

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Spartak Nalchik

11/7/2020

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse29%

×Draw24%

Spartak Nalchik47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TuapseExpected goals in this matchSpartak Nalchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.71

Tuapse

1.29

Spartak Nalchik

1.71

Spartak Nalchik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 96 away

1.25

creates per match

1.24

2.19

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tuapse

1.25

Spartak Nalchik

1.24

allows per match

Tuapse

2.19

Spartak Nalchik

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Spartak Nalchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw

53%

Tuapse or Spartak Nalchik

76%

Draw or Spartak Nalchik

71%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+

12%

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals

72%

Tuapse 2+ goals

37%

Tuapse 3+ goals

14%

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

82%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

51%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)

38%

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tuapse scores more

29%

level

24%

Spartak Nalchik scores more

47%

Spartak Nalchik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff