Spartak Nalchik 1–1 Tuapse: Result & Stats

Spartak Nalchik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tuapse

11/5/2021

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spartak Nalchik61%

×Draw20%

Tuapse18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak NalchikExpected goals in this matchTuapse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.10

Spartak Nalchik

2.17

Tuapse

1.10

Spartak Nalchik creates 97% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 32 away

1.34

creates per match

1.09

1.11

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.34

Tuapse

1.09

allows per match

Spartak Nalchik

1.11

Tuapse

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Nalchik ↓

Tuapse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Spartak Nalchik or draw

82%

Spartak Nalchik or Tuapse

80%

Draw or Tuapse

39%

Winning margin

Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+

38%

Tuapse wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals

89%

Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals

64%

Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals

36%

Tuapse 1+ goals

67%

Tuapse 2+ goals

30%

Tuapse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)

77%

Tuapse (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Nalchik at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 98 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.34 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Spartak Nalchik scores more

61%

level

20%

Tuapse scores more

18%

Spartak Nalchik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Spartak Nalchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff