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Tuapse vs Chernomorets — Second League - Group 1 2020

Tuapse
Tuapse
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chernomorets
Chernomorets
10/4/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Stadion Vodnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Tuapse19%
×Draw21%
Chernomorets60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuapse
1.05
Chernomorets
2.05

Chernomorets creates 95% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 46 away

creates per match

Tuapse
1.25
Chernomorets
1.91

allows per match

Tuapse
2.19
Chernomorets
0.85

finishing

Tuapse+0.00on par
Chernomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuapse ↓

Chernomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tuapse or draw
40%
Tuapse or Chernomorets
79%
Draw or Chernomorets
81%

Winning margin

Tuapse wins by 2+
7%
Chernomorets wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Tuapse 1+ goals
65%
Tuapse 2+ goals
28%
Tuapse 3+ goals
9%
Chernomorets 1+ goals
87%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
61%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tuapse (draw refunded)
24%
Chernomorets (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuapse at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 32 matches

Chernomorets away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuapse attack 1.25 + Chernomorets defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Chernomorets attack 1.91 + Tuapse defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tuapse scores more
19%
level
21%
Chernomorets scores more
60%

Chernomorets at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Tuapse 0–1 Chernomorets

Chernomorets beat Tuapse 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vodnik in Tuapse.