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Chernomorets vs Tuapse — Second League - Group 1 2020

Chernomorets
Chernomorets
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuapse
Tuapse
10/31/2020Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Stadion Central'nyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chernomorets74%
×Draw16%
Tuapse11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets
2.60
Tuapse
0.88

Chernomorets creates 195% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 32 away

creates per match

Chernomorets
2.21
Tuapse
1.09

allows per match

Chernomorets
0.66
Tuapse
3.00

finishing

Chernomorets+0.00on par
Tuapse+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets ↓

Tuapse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Chernomorets or draw
89%
Chernomorets or Tuapse
84%
Draw or Tuapse
26%

Winning margin

Chernomorets wins by 2+
52%
Tuapse wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1+ goals
92%
Chernomorets 2+ goals
73%
Chernomorets 3+ goals
47%
Tuapse 1+ goals
59%
Tuapse 2+ goals
22%
Tuapse 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets (draw refunded)
87%
Tuapse (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.66 · 47 matches

Tuapse away — creates 1.09, concedes 3.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets attack 2.21 + Tuapse defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Tuapse attack 1.09 + Chernomorets defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Chernomorets scores more
74%
level
16%
Tuapse scores more
11%

Chernomorets at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Chernomorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chernomorets vs Tuapse

Chernomorets beat Tuapse 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj in Novorossiysk.