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TSV Steinbach vs SV Sandhausen — League #86 2026

TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
J. Singer 36'
O. Kauper 28' (pen)
L. Kolbe 90'
P. Testroet 68', 55'
4/10/2026League #86League #86 · Südwest - 28SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TSV Steinbach42%
×Draw23%
SV Sandhausen36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Steinbach
1.77
SV Sandhausen
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

creates per match

TSV Steinbach
2.29
SV Sandhausen
1.75

allows per match

TSV Steinbach
1.50
SV Sandhausen
1.25

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par
SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

SV Sandhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw
64%
TSV Steinbach or SV Sandhausen
77%
Draw or SV Sandhausen
58%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
22%
SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
83%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
53%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
26%
SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
80%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
48%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
54%
SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 2.29 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.77

SV Sandhausen attack 1.75 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more
42%
level
23%
SV Sandhausen scores more
36%

TSV Steinbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
O. KauperPenalty
36'
J. Singer
55'
P. Testroet
68'
P. Testroet
90'
L. Kolbe
TSV
SV
H. Tahiri
Manager: H. Tahiri
Olaf Janssen
Manager: Olaf Janssen

League #86: TSV Steinbach 2–3 SV Sandhausen

SV Sandhausen beat TSV Steinbach 3-2 in League #86 on April 10, 2026.

Goals: O. Kauper (28' pen), J. Singer (36'), P. Testroet (55', 68'), L. Kolbe (90').

The match was played at SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger in Haiger.