SV Sandhausen 1–5 TSV Steinbach: Result & Stats

SV Sandhausen

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

TSV Steinbach

D. Mamutovic 8'

F. Yilmaz 87'

S. Firat 69'

T. Hildebrandt 59'

G. Lee 30'

E. Dacaj 10'

10/5/2025

League #86 · Südwest - 11Hardtwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Sandhausen12%

×Draw16%

TSV Steinbach72%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV SandhausenExpected goals in this matchTSV Steinbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.63

SV Sandhausen

1.00

TSV Steinbach

2.63

TSV Steinbach creates 163% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

2.86

2.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SV Sandhausen

1.00

TSV Steinbach

2.86

allows per match

SV Sandhausen

2.40

TSV Steinbach

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

TSV Steinbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw

28%

SV Sandhausen or TSV Steinbach

84%

Draw or TSV Steinbach

88%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

4%

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

63%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

26%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

8%

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

93%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

73%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

15%

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.00 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

TSV Steinbach attack 2.86 + SV Sandhausen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more

12%

level

16%

TSV Steinbach scores more

72%

TSV Steinbach at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

10'

30'

59'

69'

87'

SV

TSV

Manager: Olaf Janßen

Manager: H. Tahiri