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TSV Steinbach vs Sportfreunde Siegen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sportfreunde Siegen
Sportfreunde Siegen
M. Kober 86'
F. Tehe 69'
P. Stock 58'
S. Firat 37'
7/12/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

TSV Steinbach73%
×Draw14%
Sportfreunde Siegen13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Steinbach
3.34
Sportfreunde Siegen
1.41

TSV Steinbach creates 137% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

TSV Steinbach
3.18
Sportfreunde Siegen
2.00

allows per match

TSV Steinbach
0.82
Sportfreunde Siegen
3.50

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

Sportfreunde Siegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw
87%
TSV Steinbach or Sportfreunde Siegen
86%
Draw or Sportfreunde Siegen
27%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
54%
Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
96%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
84%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
63%
Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals
76%
Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals
41%
Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
85%
Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Sportfreunde Siegen away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 3.18 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.34

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + TSV Steinbach defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more
73%
level
14%
Sportfreunde Siegen scores more
13%

TSV Steinbach at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
S. Firat
58'
P. Stock
69'
F. Tehe
86'
M. Kober

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: TSV Steinbach 4–0 Sportfreunde Siegen

TSV Steinbach beat Sportfreunde Siegen 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2022.

Goals: S. Firat (37'), P. Stock (58'), F. Tehe (69'), M. Kober (86').

The match was played at SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger in Haiger.