Sportfreunde Siegen 1–1 TSV Steinbach

Sportfreunde Siegen

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Steinbach

Unknown 67'

G. Lee 8'

2/7/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sportfreunde Siegen40%

×Draw22%

TSV Steinbach38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportfreunde SiegenExpected goals in this matchTSV Steinbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.73

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.77

TSV Steinbach

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

2.08

1.38

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

2.00

TSV Steinbach

2.08

allows per match

Sportfreunde Siegen

1.38

TSV Steinbach

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportfreunde Siegen+0.00on par

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Siegen ↓

TSV Steinbach →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Siegen or draw

62%

Sportfreunde Siegen or TSV Steinbach

78%

Draw or TSV Steinbach

60%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Siegen wins by 2+

21%

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Siegen 1+ goals

83%

Sportfreunde Siegen 2+ goals

53%

Sportfreunde Siegen 3+ goals

26%

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

82%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

52%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Siegen (draw refunded)

51%

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Siegen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Siegen attack 2.00 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

TSV Steinbach attack 2.08 + Sportfreunde Siegen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sportfreunde Siegen scores more

40%

level

22%

TSV Steinbach scores more

38%

Sportfreunde Siegen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sportfreunde Siegen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

G. Lee

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff