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TSV Steinbach vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
FT
1 – 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
D. Wegner 90+1'
B. Tomiak 65'
8/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

TSV Steinbach57%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Steinbach
2.34
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.46

TSV Steinbach creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

TSV Steinbach
3.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
2.10

allows per match

TSV Steinbach
0.82
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.50

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw
77%
TSV Steinbach or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
80%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
43%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
36%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
90%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
67%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
41%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals
43%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
71%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 3.18 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 2.10 + TSV Steinbach defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more
57%
level
20%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more
23%

TSV Steinbach at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
B. Tomiak
90+1'
D. Wegner

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TSV Steinbach vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II

TSV Steinbach and Fortuna Düsseldorf II drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 26, 2020.

Goals: B. Tomiak (65'), D. Wegner (90+1').

The match was played at SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger in Haiger.