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TSV Steinbach vs Alemannia Aachen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alemannia Aachen
Alemannia Aachen
T. Streller 85'
T. Kircher 73'
A. Guclu 45+1' (pen)
C. Theisen 20'
B. Ametov 67'
7/12/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

TSV Steinbach48%
×Draw20%
Alemannia Aachen32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Steinbach
2.41
Alemannia Aachen
1.97

TSV Steinbach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

TSV Steinbach
3.18
Alemannia Aachen
3.13

allows per match

TSV Steinbach
0.82
Alemannia Aachen
1.63

finishing

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par
Alemannia Aachen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Steinbach ↓

Alemannia Aachen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

TSV Steinbach or draw
68%
TSV Steinbach or Alemannia Aachen
80%
Draw or Alemannia Aachen
52%

Winning margin

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
29%
Alemannia Aachen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
91%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
69%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
43%
Alemannia Aachen 1+ goals
86%
Alemannia Aachen 2+ goals
58%
Alemannia Aachen 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
60%
Alemannia Aachen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Steinbach at home — creates 3.18, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Alemannia Aachen away — creates 3.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Steinbach attack 3.18 + Alemannia Aachen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.41

Alemannia Aachen attack 3.13 + TSV Steinbach defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

TSV Steinbach scores more
48%
level
20%
Alemannia Aachen scores more
32%

TSV Steinbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
C. Theisen
45+1'
A. GucluPenalty
67'
B. Ametov
73'
T. Kircher
85'
T. Streller

Statistics

TSVAlemannia
Overview
5Corners5

TSV Steinbach 4 – 1 Alemannia Aachen

TSV Steinbach beat Alemannia Aachen 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 12, 2023.

Goals: C. Theisen (20'), A. Guclu (45+1' pen), B. Ametov (67'), T. Kircher (73'), T. Streller (85').

The match was played at SIBRE Sportzentrum Haarwasen Haiger in Haiger.