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Alemannia Aachen vs TSV Steinbach — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Alemannia Aachen
Alemannia Aachen
FT
0 – 0
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
7/25/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Neuer Tivoli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alemannia Aachen45%
×Draw26%
TSV Steinbach30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Aachen
1.50
TSV Steinbach
1.17

Alemannia Aachen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Alemannia Aachen
1.33
TSV Steinbach
2.00

allows per match

Alemannia Aachen
0.33
TSV Steinbach
1.67

finishing

Alemannia Aachen+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Aachen ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alemannia Aachen or draw
70%
Alemannia Aachen or TSV Steinbach
74%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
55%

Winning margin

Alemannia Aachen wins by 2+
22%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Alemannia Aachen 1+ goals
78%
Alemannia Aachen 2+ goals
44%
Alemannia Aachen 3+ goals
19%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
69%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
33%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Aachen (draw refunded)
60%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Aachen at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Aachen attack 1.33 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

TSV Steinbach attack 2.00 + Alemannia Aachen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alemannia Aachen scores more
45%
level
26%
TSV Steinbach scores more
30%

Alemannia Aachen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alemannia Aachen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Alemannia Aachen 0–0 TSV Steinbach

Alemannia Aachen and TSV Steinbach drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Neuer Tivoli in Aachen.