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TSV St. Johann vs SVG Reichenau — Regionalliga - West 2018

TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SVG Reichenau
SVG Reichenau
10/4/2025Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 11Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

TSV St. Johann49%
×Draw23%
SVG Reichenau28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV St. Johann
1.87
SVG Reichenau
1.38

TSV St. Johann creates 36% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

creates per match

TSV St. Johann
1.89
SVG Reichenau
1.39

allows per match

TSV St. Johann
1.36
SVG Reichenau
1.85

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par
SVG Reichenau+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

SVG Reichenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw
72%
TSV St. Johann or SVG Reichenau
77%
Draw or SVG Reichenau
51%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
27%
SVG Reichenau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
85%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
56%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
29%
SVG Reichenau 1+ goals
75%
SVG Reichenau 2+ goals
40%
SVG Reichenau 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
63%
SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

SVG Reichenau away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.89 + SVG Reichenau defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.87

SVG Reichenau attack 1.39 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more
49%
level
23%
SVG Reichenau scores more
28%

TSV St. Johann at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: TSV St. Johann 0–2 SVG Reichenau

SVG Reichenau beat TSV St. Johann 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on October 4, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Johann in St. Johann im Pongau.