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SVG Reichenau vs TSV St. Johann — Regionalliga - West 2018

SVG Reichenau
SVG Reichenau
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
5/9/2026Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 28Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

SVG Reichenau59%
×Draw21%
TSV St. Johann20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SVG Reichenau
2.00
TSV St. Johann
1.07

SVG Reichenau creates 87% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 63 away

creates per match

SVG Reichenau
2.02
TSV St. Johann
1.22

allows per match

SVG Reichenau
0.92
TSV St. Johann
1.98

finishing

SVG Reichenau+0.00on par
TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SVG Reichenau ↓

TSV St. Johann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SVG Reichenau or draw
80%
SVG Reichenau or TSV St. Johann
79%
Draw or TSV St. Johann
41%

Winning margin

SVG Reichenau wins by 2+
35%
TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SVG Reichenau 1+ goals
86%
SVG Reichenau 2+ goals
59%
SVG Reichenau 3+ goals
32%
TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
66%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
29%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

SVG Reichenau (draw refunded)
75%
TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SVG Reichenau at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.92 · 61 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SVG Reichenau attack 2.02 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

TSV St. Johann attack 1.22 + SVG Reichenau defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SVG Reichenau scores more
59%
level
21%
TSV St. Johann scores more
20%

SVG Reichenau at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SVG Reichenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: SVG Reichenau 2–0 TSV St. Johann

SVG Reichenau beat TSV St. Johann 2-0 in Regionalliga - West on May 9, 2026.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Reichenau Hauptspielfeld in Innsbruck.