TSV St. Johann 2–1 Pinzgau Saalfelden

TSV St. Johann

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pinzgau Saalfelden

R. Bytyqi 23'

B. Ojdanić 4'

Luan Leite 51'

11/16/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 16Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

TSV St. Johann55%

×Draw22%

Pinzgau Saalfelden22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV St. JohannExpected goals in this matchPinzgau Saalfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.13

TSV St. Johann

1.90

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.13

TSV St. Johann creates 68% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 62 away

1.89

creates per match

0.90

1.36

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

TSV St. Johann

1.89

Pinzgau Saalfelden

0.90

allows per match

TSV St. Johann

1.36

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Pinzgau Saalfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw

78%

TSV St. Johann or Pinzgau Saalfelden

78%

Draw or Pinzgau Saalfelden

45%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

32%

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

85%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

56%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

29%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals

68%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals

31%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

71%

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.89 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 0.90 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more

55%

level

22%

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more

22%

TSV St. Johann at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

B. Ojdanić

23'

R. Bytyqi

46'

A. Mašić← A. Wangler

46'

R. Dudaev← L. Moosmann

51'

Luan Leite

71'

Murilo Henrique← R. Streitwieser

79'

J. Höllwart← Y. Yurttas

79'

R. Kosakiewic← P. Illmer

90+3'

S. Pichler← S. Oberkofler

90+3'

Zior Ramo← M. Čolić

TSV

Pinzgau

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Scherer

79'▲J. Höllwart←▼Y. Yurttas

79'▲R. Kosakiewic←▼P. Illmer

90+3'▲S. Pichler←▼S. Oberkofler

TSV St. Johann substitutes

HöllwartKosakiewicPichlerUnterwegerTaschwer

Manager: F. Klausner

46'▲A. Mašić←▼A. Wangler

46'▲R. Dudaev←▼L. Moosmann

71'▲Murilo Henrique←▼R. Streitwieser

90+3'▲Zior Ramo←▼M. Čolić

Pinzgau Saalfelden substitutes

MašićDudaevHenriqueRamoJureschaDudaew

Regionalliga - West: TSV St. Johann 2–1 Pinzgau Saalfelden

TSV St. Johann beat Pinzgau Saalfelden 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on November 16, 2024.

Goals: B. Ojdanić (4'), R. Bytyqi (23'), Luan Leite (51').

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Johann in St. Johann im Pongau.

TSV St. Johann vs Pinzgau Saalfelden — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: TSV St. Johann 2–1 Pinzgau Saalfelden