Pinzgau Saalfelden 1–1 TSV St. Johann

Pinzgau Saalfelden

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

TSV St. Johann

8/2/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 11508 SaalfeldenArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden45%

×Draw23%

TSV St. Johann32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pinzgau SaalfeldenExpected goals in this matchTSV St. Johann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.42

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.73

TSV St. Johann

1.42

Pinzgau Saalfelden creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

1.48

creates per match

1.20

1.65

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.48

TSV St. Johann

1.20

allows per match

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.65

TSV St. Johann

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pinzgau Saalfelden ↓

TSV St. Johann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pinzgau Saalfelden or draw

68%

Pinzgau Saalfelden or TSV St. Johann

77%

Draw or TSV St. Johann

55%

Winning margin

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+

24%

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals

82%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals

52%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals

25%

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

76%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

41%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)

59%

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pinzgau Saalfelden at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.98 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 1.48 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

TSV St. Johann attack 1.20 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more

45%

level

23%

TSV St. Johann scores more

32%

Pinzgau Saalfelden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pinzgau Saalfelden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff