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TSV St. Johann vs Dornbirner SV — Regionalliga - West 2018

TSV St. Johann
TSV St. Johann
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
11/11/2023Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 16Sportplatz St. Johann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

TSV St. Johann51%
×Draw21%
Dornbirner SV28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV St. Johann
2.06
Dornbirner SV
1.47

TSV St. Johann creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 51 away

creates per match

TSV St. Johann
1.89
Dornbirner SV
1.57

allows per match

TSV St. Johann
1.36
Dornbirner SV
2.24

finishing

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV St. Johann ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

TSV St. Johann or draw
72%
TSV St. Johann or Dornbirner SV
79%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
49%

Winning margin

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+
30%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals
87%
TSV St. Johann 2+ goals
61%
TSV St. Johann 3+ goals
34%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
77%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
43%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)
65%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV St. Johann at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV St. Johann attack 1.89 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TSV St. Johann scores more
51%
level
21%
Dornbirner SV scores more
28%

TSV St. Johann at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: TSV St. Johann 0–0 Dornbirner SV

TSV St. Johann and Dornbirner SV drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - West on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz St. Johann in St. Johann im Pongau.