Dornbirner SV 3–0 TSV St. Johann: Result & Stats

Dornbirner SV

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

TSV St. Johann

F. Kilzer 90'

J. Erhart 60'

C. Nagel 29'

7/29/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 1EMMA & EUGEN Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dornbirner SV43%

×Draw23%

TSV St. Johann34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dornbirner SVExpected goals in this matchTSV St. Johann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.59

Dornbirner SV

1.81

TSV St. Johann

1.59

Dornbirner SV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 59 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

1.94

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Dornbirner SV

1.61

TSV St. Johann

1.24

allows per match

Dornbirner SV

1.94

TSV St. Johann

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirner SV ↓

TSV St. Johann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dornbirner SV or draw

66%

Dornbirner SV or TSV St. Johann

77%

Draw or TSV St. Johann

57%

Winning margin

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

23%

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

84%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

54%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

27%

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

80%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

47%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

56%

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirner SV at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirner SV attack 1.61 + TSV St. Johann defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

TSV St. Johann attack 1.24 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dornbirner SV scores more

43%

level

23%

TSV St. Johann scores more

34%

Dornbirner SV at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

C. Nagel

46'

F. Ellmer← R. Kosakiewic

60'

J. Erhart

63'

P. Weiss← S. Oberkofler

63'

Y. Yurttas← S. Sendlhofer

72'

L. Gassner← P. Weiss

75'

J. Gamper← J. Erhart

82'

F. Kilzer← J. Pfahl

83'

V. Palzenberger← P. Volk

90+4'

F. Wagner← C. Nagel

90'

F. Kilzer

Dornbirner

TSV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Erhart

Klammer

Holzknech

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Spiegel

75'▲J. Gamper←▼J. Erhart

82'▲F. Kilzer←▼J. Pfahl

90+4'▲F. Wagner←▼C. Nagel

Dornbirner SV substitutes

GamperKilzerWagnerFillerRojcTsohataridis

Manager: E. Lottermoser

46'▲F. Ellmer←▼R. Kosakiewic

63'▲P. Weiss←▼S. Oberkofler

63'▲Y. Yurttas←▼S. Sendlhofer

72'▲L. Gassner←▼P. Weiss

83'▲V. Palzenberger←▼P. Volk

TSV St. Johann substitutes

EllmerWeissYurttasGassnerPalzenbergerUnterweger

Regionalliga - West: Dornbirner SV 3–0 TSV St. Johann

Dornbirner SV beat TSV St. Johann 3-0 in Regionalliga - West on July 29, 2023.

Goals: C. Nagel (29'), J. Erhart (60'), F. Kilzer (90').

The match was played at EMMA & EUGEN Arena in Dornbirn.

Dornbirner SV vs TSV St. Johann — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - West: Dornbirner SV 3–0 TSV St. Johann