TSV Hartberg 1–0 WSG Wattens: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

WSG Wattens

L. Sulzbacher 89' (OG)

9/26/2024

Bundesliga · Round 6PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

TSV Hartberg35%

×Draw27%

WSG Wattens37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchWSG Wattens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.25

TSV Hartberg

1.21

WSG Wattens

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.07

creates per match

1.03

1.47

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.07

WSG Wattens

1.03

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.47

WSG Wattens

1.35

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.16scores more

WSG Wattens-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

WSG Wattens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

63%

TSV Hartberg or WSG Wattens

73%

Draw or WSG Wattens

65%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

15%

WSG Wattens wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

70%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

34%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

12%

WSG Wattens 1+ goals

71%

WSG Wattens 2+ goals

36%

WSG Wattens 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

49%

WSG Wattens (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

WSG Wattens away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.07 + WSG Wattens defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

WSG Wattens attack 1.03 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

35%

level

27%

WSG Wattens scores more

37%

WSG Wattens at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "WSG Wattens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Gugganig

WSG Wattens · D

7.9

Match Events

55'

M. Fillafer← J. Omoregie

60'

Florian Rieder

62'

Y. Diarra← T. Kainz

62'

F. Demir← P. Mijić

62'

M. Diarra← L. Hinterseer

71'

Quincy Butler

77'

C. Üstündag← B. Blume

79'

Manuel Pfeifer

80'

M. Hoffmann← D. Prokop

88'

S. Škrbo← Q. Butler

88'

O. Okungbowa← F. Rieder

89'

L. SulzbacherOwn goal

90+1'

Marco Hoffmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TSVWSG

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots9

5Corners4

15Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target3

7Off Target2

1Blocked4

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

415Total Passes334

347Accurate Passes257

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2