TSV Hartberg 4–2 SV Mattersburg: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

SV Mattersburg

8/11/2018

Bundesliga · Round 3Profertil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

TSV Hartberg44%

×Draw24%

SV Mattersburg32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchSV Mattersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.34

TSV Hartberg

1.60

SV Mattersburg

1.34

TSV Hartberg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 31 away

1.30

creates per match

1.13

1.55

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.30

SV Mattersburg

1.13

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.55

SV Mattersburg

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

SV Mattersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

68%

TSV Hartberg or SV Mattersburg

76%

Draw or SV Mattersburg

56%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

22%

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

80%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

47%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

22%

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals

74%

SV Mattersburg 2+ goals

39%

SV Mattersburg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

58%

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 130 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.60

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

44%

level

24%

SV Mattersburg scores more

32%

TSV Hartberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff