SV Mattersburg 3–0 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

SV Mattersburg

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TSV Hartberg

4/6/2019

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 2Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg36%

×Draw24%

TSV Hartberg40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV MattersburgExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.59

SV Mattersburg

1.50

TSV Hartberg

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 127 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

1.79

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

SV Mattersburg

1.25

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

SV Mattersburg

1.79

TSV Hartberg

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw

60%

SV Mattersburg or TSV Hartberg

76%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

64%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+

17%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals

78%

SV Mattersburg 2+ goals

44%

SV Mattersburg 3+ goals

19%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

80%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

47%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)

47%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.75 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more

36%

level

24%

TSV Hartberg scores more

40%

TSV Hartberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff