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TSV Hartberg vs SKN ST. Polten — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SKN ST. Polten
SKN ST. Polten
3/21/2021BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

TSV Hartberg42%
×Draw25%
SKN ST. Polten33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.56
SKN ST. Polten
1.36

TSV Hartberg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 49 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
SKN ST. Polten
1.18

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
SKN ST. Polten
1.82

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

SKN ST. Polten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
67%
TSV Hartberg or SKN ST. Polten
75%
Draw or SKN ST. Polten
58%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
21%
SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
79%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
46%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
21%
SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals
74%
SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals
39%
SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
56%
SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

SKN ST. Polten away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.82 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.18 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
42%
level
25%
SKN ST. Polten scores more
33%

TSV Hartberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 3–3 SKN ST. Polten

TSV Hartberg and SKN ST. Polten drew 3-3 in Bundesliga on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.