SKN ST. Polten 0–1 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

SKN ST. Polten

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

5/21/2021

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 10NV ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

SKN ST. Polten34%

×Draw24%

TSV Hartberg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKN ST. PoltenExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.60

SKN ST. Polten

1.41

TSV Hartberg

1.60

TSV Hartberg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 131 away

1.06

creates per match

1.40

1.80

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

SKN ST. Polten

1.06

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

SKN ST. Polten

1.80

TSV Hartberg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKN ST. Polten+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKN ST. Polten ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SKN ST. Polten or draw

58%

SKN ST. Polten or TSV Hartberg

76%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

66%

Winning margin

SKN ST. Polten wins by 2+

15%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SKN ST. Polten 1+ goals

76%

SKN ST. Polten 2+ goals

41%

SKN ST. Polten 3+ goals

17%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

80%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

47%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

SKN ST. Polten (draw refunded)

45%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKN ST. Polten at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKN ST. Polten attack 1.06 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + SKN ST. Polten defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SKN ST. Polten scores more

34%

level

24%

TSV Hartberg scores more

42%

TSV Hartberg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff