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TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Grazer AK
Grazer AK
F. Wilfinger 59'
2/21/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 20Stadion Hartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

TSV Hartberg35%
×Draw27%
Grazer AK38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.21
Grazer AK
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.07
Grazer AK
1.10

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.47
Grazer AK
1.34

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.16scores more
Grazer AK+0.15scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Grazer AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
62%
TSV Hartberg or Grazer AK
73%
Draw or Grazer AK
65%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
15%
Grazer AK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
70%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
34%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
12%
Grazer AK 1+ goals
72%
Grazer AK 2+ goals
37%
Grazer AK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
47%
Grazer AK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.07 + Grazer AK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Grazer AK attack 1.10 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
35%
level
27%
Grazer AK scores more
38%

Grazer AK at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
T. KainzTSV HartbergTSV Hartberg · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
Benjamin MarkušPenalty cancelled
46'
J. Drew← M. Hoffmann
46'
M. Hennig← H. Coulibaly
59'
F. Wilfinger
65'
Lukas Spendlhofer
66'
A. Hofleitner← M. Grosse
66'
T. Paumgartner← M. Satin
72'
Youba Diarra
77'
C. Lichtenberger← L. Vraa-Jensen
81'
J. Halwachs← T. Kainz
85'
Tim Paumgartner
87'
K. Schopp← Y. Diarra
90+1'
L. Fridrikas← E. Havel
90+4'
L. Graf← J. Italiano

Possession

43%TSV

Shots

11TSV

Pass accuracy

47%TSV

Statistics

TSVGrazer
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots8
1.21Expected Goals (xG)0.49
5Corners5
14Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target2
3Off Target1
3Blocked5
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
347Total Passes447
249Accurate Passes362
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.21Goals Prevented0.21
Discipline
14Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 1-0 in Bundesliga on February 21, 2026.

Goals: F. Wilfinger (59').

Grazer AK controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Hartberg in Hartberg.