Grazer AK 0–3 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

Grazer AK

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

D. Avdijaj 84'

D. Prokop 60' (pen)

P. Mijić 36'

12/8/2024

Bundesliga · Round 16Merkur Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Grazer AK52%

×Draw26%

TSV Hartberg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grazer AKExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.88

Grazer AK

1.50

TSV Hartberg

0.88

Grazer AK creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

0.61

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Grazer AK

1.42

TSV Hartberg

0.61

allows per match

Grazer AK

1.14

TSV Hartberg

1.58

+0.67scores more than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

Grazer AK+0.67scores more

TSV Hartberg+0.49scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grazer AK ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Grazer AK or draw

78%

Grazer AK or TSV Hartberg

74%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

48%

Winning margin

Grazer AK wins by 2+

26%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Grazer AK 1+ goals

78%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

44%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

19%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

59%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

22%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

70%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grazer AK at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.14 · 11 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grazer AK attack 1.42 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

TSV Hartberg attack 0.61 + Grazer AK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Grazer AK scores more

52%

level

26%

TSV Hartberg scores more

22%

Grazer AK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Grazer AK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Heil

TSV Hartberg · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

28'

36'

52'

58'

59'

Dominik ProkopPenalty confirmed

60'

D. ProkopPenalty

61'

M. Lang← B. Rosenberger

61'

J. Italiano← T. Cipot

62'

Miloš Jovičić

64'

Daniel Maderner

70'

A. Zaizen← C. Lichtenberger

79'

M. Hoffmann← P. Mijić

79'

J. Omoregie← D. Prokop

81'

Justin Omoregie

82'

R. Vučić← M. Gantschnig

84'

D. Avdijaj↳ J. Omoregie

88'

M. Fillafer← D. Avdijaj

90+4'

90+4'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrazerTSV

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots18

1Corners7

12Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots18

1On Target7

3Off Target7

2Blocked4

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

32%Possession68%

285Total Passes625

202Accurate Passes526

71%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

Bundesliga: Grazer AK 0–3 TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Grazer AK 3-0 in Bundesliga on December 8, 2024.

Goals: P. Mijić (36'), D. Prokop (60' pen), D. Avdijaj (84').

TSV Hartberg controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Merkur Arena in Graz.

Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: Grazer AK 0–3 TSV Hartberg