TSV Hartberg 2–3 Austria Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

TSV Hartberg

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Austria Klagenfurt

3/29/2025

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 1PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

TSV Hartberg43%

×Draw24%

Austria Klagenfurt33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TSV HartbergExpected goals in this matchAustria Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.42

TSV Hartberg

1.64

Austria Klagenfurt

1.42

TSV Hartberg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.55

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

TSV Hartberg

1.30

Austria Klagenfurt

1.29

allows per match

TSV Hartberg

1.55

Austria Klagenfurt

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw

67%

TSV Hartberg or Austria Klagenfurt

76%

Draw or Austria Klagenfurt

57%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

22%

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

81%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

49%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

23%

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

76%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

41%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

56%

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.64

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.29 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more

43%

level

24%

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

33%

TSV Hartberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff