Austria Klagenfurt 2–2 TSV Hartberg: Result & Stats

Austria Klagenfurt

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

TSV Hartberg

9/21/2024

Bundesliga · Round 728 Black Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt37%

×Draw24%

TSV Hartberg39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchTSV Hartberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.56

Austria Klagenfurt

1.51

TSV Hartberg

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 131 away

1.26

creates per match

1.40

1.72

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.26

TSV Hartberg

1.40

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.72

TSV Hartberg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

TSV Hartberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw

61%

Austria Klagenfurt or TSV Hartberg

76%

Draw or TSV Hartberg

63%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

18%

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

78%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

44%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

19%

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals

79%

TSV Hartberg 2+ goals

46%

TSV Hartberg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

49%

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.51

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

37%

level

24%

TSV Hartberg scores more

39%

TSV Hartberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TSV Hartberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff