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TSV 1860 Munich vs Bayreuth — Friendlies Clubs 2026

TSV 1860 Munich
TSV 1860 Munich
CANC
12:30
Bayreuth
Bayreuth
12/20/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TSV 1860 Munich55%
×Draw20%
Bayreuth25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV 1860 Munich
2.33
Bayreuth
1.52

TSV 1860 Munich creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

TSV 1860 Munich
3.00
Bayreuth
2.44

allows per match

TSV 1860 Munich
0.60
Bayreuth
1.67

finishing

TSV 1860 Munich+0.00on par
Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 74Under: 2674%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV 1860 Munich ↓

Bayreuth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

TSV 1860 Munich or draw
75%
TSV 1860 Munich or Bayreuth
80%
Draw or Bayreuth
45%

Winning margin

TSV 1860 Munich wins by 2+
34%
Bayreuth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

TSV 1860 Munich 1+ goals
90%
TSV 1860 Munich 2+ goals
67%
TSV 1860 Munich 3+ goals
41%
Bayreuth 1+ goals
78%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
45%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TSV 1860 Munich (draw refunded)
69%
Bayreuth (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV 1860 Munich at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV 1860 Munich attack 3.00 + Bayreuth defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Bayreuth attack 2.44 + TSV 1860 Munich defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TSV 1860 Munich scores more
55%
level
20%
Bayreuth scores more
25%

TSV 1860 Munich at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TSV 1860 Munich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TSV 1860 Munich face Bayreuth (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with TSV 1860 Munich hosting Bayreuth. Match starts December 20, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TSV 1860 Munich host Bayreuth at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Kunstrasenplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.