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Bayreuth vs TSV 1860 Munich — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bayreuth
Bayreuth
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
TSV 1860 Munich
TSV 1860 Munich
T. Stockinger 90+3'
E. Zejnullahu 27', 18'
M. Ziereis 4'
A. Vrenezi 8'
J. Verlaat 6'
12/20/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bayreuth50%
×Draw20%
TSV 1860 Munich30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayreuth
2.38
TSV 1860 Munich
1.84

Bayreuth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bayreuth
3.23
TSV 1860 Munich
2.69

allows per match

Bayreuth
1.00
TSV 1860 Munich
1.54

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par
TSV 1860 Munich+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 79Under: 2179%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

TSV 1860 Munich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw
70%
Bayreuth or TSV 1860 Munich
80%
Draw or TSV 1860 Munich
50%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+
30%
TSV 1860 Munich wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals
91%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
68%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
42%
TSV 1860 Munich 1+ goals
84%
TSV 1860 Munich 2+ goals
55%
TSV 1860 Munich 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)
62%
TSV 1860 Munich (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 3.23, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

TSV 1860 Munich away — creates 2.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 3.23 + TSV 1860 Munich defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

TSV 1860 Munich attack 2.69 + Bayreuth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bayreuth scores more
50%
level
20%
TSV 1860 Munich scores more
30%

Bayreuth at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Ziereis
6'
J. Verlaat
8'
A. Vrenezi
18'
E. Zejnullahu
27'
E. Zejnullahu
90+3'
T. Stockinger

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Bayreuth 4–2 TSV 1860 Munich

Bayreuth beat TSV 1860 Munich 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on December 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Ziereis (4'), J. Verlaat (6'), A. Vrenezi (8'), E. Zejnullahu (18', 27'), T. Stockinger (90+3').