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Tskhinvali vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
3/10/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 2David Petriashvili Arena (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tskhinvali41%
×Draw24%
Merani Tbilisi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tskhinvali
1.65
Merani Tbilisi
1.50

Tskhinvali creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

creates per match

Tskhinvali
1.28
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Tskhinvali
1.61
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Tskhinvali+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tskhinvali ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tskhinvali or draw
65%
Tskhinvali or Merani Tbilisi
76%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
59%

Winning margin

Tskhinvali wins by 2+
21%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tskhinvali 1+ goals
81%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
49%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
23%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
78%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
44%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
54%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tskhinvali at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tskhinvali attack 1.28 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Tskhinvali defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tskhinvali scores more
41%
level
24%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
35%

Tskhinvali at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tskhinvali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tskhinvali vs Merani Tbilisi

Merani Tbilisi beat Tskhinvali 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena (Tbilisi).