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Merani Tbilisi vs Tskhinvali — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tskhinvali
Tskhinvali
5/16/2019Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 11Stadioni Spaeri (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Merani Tbilisi51%
×Draw23%
Tskhinvali26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
1.79
Tskhinvali
1.22

Merani Tbilisi creates 47% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.76
Tskhinvali
0.83

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.61
Tskhinvali
1.83

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Tskhinvali+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Tskhinvali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
74%
Merani Tbilisi or Tskhinvali
77%
Draw or Tskhinvali
49%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
28%
Tskhinvali wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
83%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
53%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
26%
Tskhinvali 1+ goals
70%
Tskhinvali 2+ goals
34%
Tskhinvali 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
66%
Tskhinvali (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Tskhinvali away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Tskhinvali defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tskhinvali attack 0.83 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
51%
level
23%
Tskhinvali scores more
26%

Merani Tbilisi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Tbilisi 4–0 Tskhinvali

Merani Tbilisi beat Tskhinvali 4-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri (Tbilisi).